Econ ministry worsens Russia’s 2021 GDP growth forecast to 2.9%

MOSCOW, Apr 22 (PRIME) -- The Economic Development Ministry decreased its forecast for growth of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 to 2.9% from 3.3%, a source with the authority told reporters citing main parameters of the revised medium-term forecast on Thursday.

Recovery of consumption and investment in fixed capital will be among the main contributors in Russia’s GDP in 2021. Investment in fixed capital will increase by 3.3% in 2021, as compared with 3.9% in the previous forecast.

The ministry also increased its forecast for inflation growth to 4.3% from 3.7% in 2021, adding that the government’s measures to stabilize food prices limited the inflation by 0.3 percentage points.

The forecast for the average U.S. dollar rate against the ruble in 2021 was raised to 73.3 rubles from 72.4 rubles, and the fundamental value of 71–72 rubles per dollar should be reached by the end of the year.

The average U.S. dollar rate is now seen at 71.8 rubles in 2022, and 72.6 and 73.6 rubles in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

The average price for Russia’s main export oil blend Urals was increased to U.S. $60.3 per barrel from $45.3 per barrel in 2021.

The real wages are to grow by 2% in 2021, as compared with the previous forecast of 2.2%, and the forecast of people’s real disposable income was retained at 3%.

Retail sales will grow by 5.1% in 2021, according to the ministry, and by 2.9% and 2.8% in 2022 and 2023.

The industrial production growth forecast was decreased to 2% from 2.6% in 2021. The industrial output is also to grow by 3.4% and 2.9% in 2022 and 2023 and by 2.8% in 2024.

(76.8198 rubles – U.S. $1)

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